AFL R11 Betting Preview courtesy of OLBG member Ben_W


The 2017 AFL Season has been a roller-coaster for punters and tipsters. A handful of upsets, comebacks and fadeouts have made tipping a games winner very frustrating at times. However by analysing performances in each individual quarter (looking into statistics such as rankings and Points For/Against percentage in each quarter) trends have developed and some excellent value can be found for punters in the Quarter Only Line markets.


Port Adelaide vs Hawthorn

Tip: 1 Stake on Line 3rd Quarter Only Port Adelaide -8.5 Sportsbet $1.93 odds (-7.5 William Hill $1.87)

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Place Bet Here

The 3rd Quarter is Port’s best quarter of the game. They have won 7/9 this year with a For/Against percentage of 159% ranking them as the second best 3rd quarter team in the league. Hawthorn on the other hand are the worst ranked winning only 2/10 of their 3rd quarters this year with a terrible percentage of 48% (the lowest of any team in any quarter). All 8 of these Hawthorn losses have easily gone over the line of 8.5 and by an average of 26 points. With the Power winning 4 of their last 5 third quarters and Hawks winning only 1 of their last 5, Port should get the job done again this weekend and cover the line of -8.5 in the 3rd quarter.


Geelong vs Adelaide

Tip: 1 Stake on Line 3rd Quarter Only Adelaide -0.5 Sportsbet $1.87 odds

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Adelaide's 3rd line quarter is a somewhat controversial choice considering they are undefeated in 2nd quarters. Despite this I’m tipping their 3rd quarter as the best one to bet on this weekend. Adelaide are the number 3 ranked 3rd quarter side winning 7/10 with a percentage of 147%. The 3rd quarter is the Cat's worst, winning only 3/10 with a percentage of 75% ranking them a lowly 16th. It’s a Geelong home game, but unfortunately for the Cats it doesn’t seem like they have much of a home ground advantage during 3rd quarters this year. Geelong’s last 2 games have been their only ones at Simonds Stadium this year and both resulted in 3rd quarter losses to Port (by 3 points) and the Bulldogs (by 35 points).

As for the 2nd quarter, while Adelaide have won 10/10, the Cats are ranked 6th having won a respectable 5/10 with the league’s third best 2nd quarter percentage (132%). In their last 2 games at home the Cats have beaten both Port (by 16) and the Dogs (by 35) in the 2nd quarter.

Even though the Crows are undefeated, the 2nd quarter represents a higher level of risk with Geelong looking like they could possibly threaten Adelaide's win streak. The Crows -0.5 in the third quarter where they are the 3rd ranked side playing against the 16th ranked looks much more appealing.


GWS vs Essendon

Tip: 1 Stake on Line 4th Quarter Only GWS -7.5 Sportsbet $1.86 odds

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While often starting well, the Bombers don’t seem to be able to run out games this year often fading late which has resulted in winning only 3/10 final quarters, ranking them in the bottom three finishers. Two of these were in the opening 2 rounds of the season and all three were against bottom 8 ranked final quarter teams. The Bombers are currently on a 5-game losing streak in 4th quarters and will be looking forward to their bye in 2 weeks time. Unfortunately for them though this weekend they face the best finishers in the league, the number 1 ranked GWS who have won 8/10 final quarters with a percentage of 161%. The Bombers average losing margin in 4th quarters is 18 and has been over 7.5 in 6/7 losses. The Giants’ eight 4th quarter wins have been by an average of 21 points and over 7.5 in 5/8 games. GWS should win the final quarter comfortably and the line of -7.5 looks like a good bet.


North Melbourne vs Richmond

Tip: 1 Stake on Line 4th Quarter Only Richmond -1.5 Sportsbet $1.84 odds

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Place Bet Here

The Roo’s are another of the competitions fast starters but struggle to maintain it over four quarters. They have only won 4/10 final quarters ranking them 12th with a percentage of 70%. Despite two heartbreaking losses in the last month, Richmond are one of the best finishers in the league and are ranked 4th in final quarters. The Tigers have won 7/10 final quarters and these were by an average of 17 points. Richmond's only three 4th quarter losses were against high ranked sides (GWS 1st, Adelaide 2nd, Bulldogs 8th) so the Kangaroos (12th) shouldn’t prove much of a challenge. The low line of 1.5 seems very generous given how differently these two sides close out games, making Richmond -1.5 look like a great bet

 

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