West Coast vs Sydney
It has been a nightmare start to the season for the Swans, after countless injuries they find themselves sitting at 0-3 to start the year and with games against the Eagles and Giants to come could find themselves in an unmanageable hole before their season even really kicks off.
More bad news on the injury front for the Swans this week with Naismith set to miss through a knee injury, but importantly small forward Tom Papley has been named to return which is much needed.
The Eagles haven’t set the world on fire themselves to start the season. They sit 2-0 with their wins coming against North Melbourne in Round 1 and the Saints in Round 2, but they very lucky to escape with the win against the Saints after playing very poor footy for most of the night. Last week they were comfortably beaten by the Tigers through the midfield when going down by 2 goals and this game doesn’t look as much in their favour as the odds might suggest.
Tip: Sydney at the line
North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs
We see the inaugural Good Friday footy clash here and we are tipping the first upset of the round to occur.
Despite sitting 0-3 and at the bottom of the ladder North Melbourne have shown very good signs in their 3 matches to date. They pushed the Eagles for the first half in their Round 1 match, before dominating Geelong for 3 quarters of footy when going down agonisingly by 1 point in the final minute of play. They were simply out classed by GWS in the end last week, but once again stuck with them until 3 quarter time. It might be worth taking the Roos at the 1st Half Line here in case they fade again late.
The Dogs were very poor last week in Perth. Taking on a Dockers side who looked very average in the first 2 weeks they were simply not good enough for a Fremantle team that brought in a number of new players. In their current form $1.30 looks far too short.
Tip: North Melbourne at the HT line
Melbourne vs Fremantle
The Dockers looked good in bouncing back and defeating the Bulldogs last week after a poor first 2 weeks to the season, but away from home now in Melbourne where they haven’t won since Round 19 in 2015 they are going to really struggle.
Despite missing Lewis and Hogan last week the Demons really pushed the Cats until the last quarter. It was really just poor kicking efficiency that lost them that match with 32 scoring shots to the Cats 26 in the end.
Tip: Melbourne at the line
GWS vs Port Adelaide
A tough game to predict with both teams playing very good footy at the moment. The Giants have bounced back well after their Round 1 loss to the Crows and put on 2 big wins, while the Powers only loss has also come at the hands of the Crows.
Both teams have a lot of speed and move the ball fast so expect a high scoring game if weather permits, but from a betting perspective the bookies look to have gotten this one pretty much right so not a lot of value either way.
Tip: No Bet
Adelaide vs Essendon
The Crows are the in form team of the competition and with a very good draw coming up over the next few weeks look very likely to be sitting on top of the ladder as we head into the half way point of the season. At odds of $1.13 though they look far too short in the market.
The Bombers had a let down last week against the Blues, but before that had been playing fairly impressive footy defeating the Lions away from home and the Hawks comfortably in Round 1. That form ties in pretty well against the Crows as the Hawks came out the following week and pushed the Crows, leading them for most of the match before Adelaide got on top late.
At $6.05 the Bombers look to be over the odds and an upset wouldn’t be surprising, although the safer bet may be to play them at the line.
Tip: Essendon at the line
Carlton vs Gold Coast
Two mediocre teams coming off surprising wins last week. The Suns appear to have the better list on paper but the Blues have the advantage of the home field. It’s a match that looks far too unpredictable and there are much better betting matches over the weekend so best to just stay out of this one.
Tip: No Bet
Collingwood vs St Kilda
Both teams only have the one win to their name but have been playing better footy than their records suggest.
The Saints dominated the Lions at home last week and really a 5 goal win doesn’t do justice to their control over the match. Very poor kicking at goal by the Saints really flattered the scoreboard for Brisbane in what should have been a 10 goal or more belting. Before that they were very good against the Eagles in Perth too, only going down late in the match.
While the Pies were excellent in their win last week against the Swans in Sydney and before that were unlucky not to get the win against the Bulldogs after having control for most of the match but not being able to capitalise. Their other loss came against the Tigers where they really just kicked themselves out of it with poor kicking in front of goal.
With the win already on the board against a quality team i have to give the Pies the edge and with Jamie Elliott and Daniel Wells both possible ins they will be very hard to beat going forward.
Tip: Collingwood H2H
Brisbane vs Richmond
Another game that looks a bit risky to get involved in. Brisbane have played well at times in Queensland with a win over the Suns and a strong fight back against the Bombers, but last week against the Saints they were very poor and didn’t look like a team you could back with any confidence going forward.
Richmond have started the season in great form at 3-0 but they haven’t been as impressive as that record suggest. They beat the Blues in Round 1 in what was a very average match and then the following week beat Collingwood in what was arguably the poorest quality game for the year with both sides kicking efficiency being terrible and wasting opportunities. They were very good against the Eagles at home last week though and with Dustin MArtin dominating through the middle and up forward it makes them far more dangerous.
Tip: Richmond H2H
Hawthorn vs Geelong
The Hawks were dreadful last week against a struggling Gold Coast side when going down by a massive 86 points. The week before however they were pushing the in form Adelaide Crows for most of the match so that performance was really just too bad to be true.
The Cats haven’t looked world beaters themselves in their wins either though. They took on an undermanned Demons side last week and were really luck that Melbourne were kicking so poor in front of goals, and before that they were completely outplayed by North Melbourne for 3 quarters of the game before getting up by 1 point late.
The odds look to have taken a bit of a knee jerk reaction on the back of last weeks performance from the Hawks, but if they can put that behind them and get back to how they were playing the week before against the Crows then they could easily be winning this match and at the odds on offer that looks the smarter play.
Tip: Hawthorn H2H